BY DAVID HOLTHAUS • DHOLTHAUS@ENQUIRER.COM • NOVEMBER 30, 2010
The global recession accelerated the shift in economic growth to Asia and elsewhere, but provided opportunities for Greater Cincinnati and other traditional Midwest economies, a new Brookings Institution study finds.
None of the top 25 economic performers in the past year are in the U.S., while five are in China, five in India and six in Latin America, according to the study of 150 of the world's largest metro regions, which was released Tuesday.
In Greater Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, researchers found a comparatively weak economic performance during the recession and in the years preceding it. However, post-recession, the 15-county metro region is recovering faster than many other areas of the U.S. and the world.
"Cincinnati is farther along than some of its Midwestern counterparts," said the study's author, Alan Berube, a senior fellow at Brookings, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The Greater Cincinnati regional economy ranked 62 out of 150 worldwide during the 2009-2010 post-recession recovery, and 16th in the U.S., the study says.
Unlike many other Rust Belt cities, Cincinnati's economy has not been as dependent on manufacturing, a declining sector, but has significant employment in consumer products, finance and logistics, helping it to come back from the downturn, Berube said.
The study looked at three periods and gauged economic performance for each: pre-recession from 1993 to 2007, the recession from 2008 to 2009, and the recovery in 2009 and 2010.
It ranked the 150 largest metro regions in the world by their total economic output during these periods. Cincinnati ranked 118 out of 150 in both the pre-recession and recession periods, but its rank jumped to 62 during the recovery.
That means the region is recovering faster than cities such as Louisville (71), Memphis (66), Columbus (81) and Portland, Ore. (102).
Surprisingly, Detroit (46) and Cleveland (49) are recovering faster than Cincinnati, the survey found.
The recovery rankings for U.S. cities such as Cincinnati and Cleveland show businesses are producing more with the same or fewer employees, Berube said.
"Companies are doing more with the same number of workers," he said. "It improves output but doesn't put a lot of people back to work."
Some cities that were flying high before the recession, such as Las Vegas and Riverside, Calif., which both rode construction booms, fell the hardest and are still trying to recover.
"Overall, the Great Recession appeared to hit U.S. metros the hardest, while it improved the relative position of metros outside the U.S. and Europe," the report says.
The top-ranked U.S. city for economic recovery was Austin, Texas, but it ranked only 26th worldwide. The No. 1 city worldwide was Istanbul, Turkey.
The report is further evidence that Cincinnati and other U.S. cities are competing with fast-growing economies around the world, the report said. "Worldwide economic upheaval has only accelerated the shift in growth toward metros in those rising regions of the world," such as Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, the report says.
Berube said the report should encourage businesses in Greater Cincinnati and elsewhere in the U.S. to look to these growing economies abroad for new customers.
"It's a call to look abroad and understand these market opportunities," he said.
